Wheat set for fourth weekly loss as Black Sea export hopes, firm dollar weigh

Chicago wheat futures declined on Friday and were poised for a fourth consecutive weekly loss, weighed down by expectations that Black Sea grain exports could resume and by a firmer US dollar that made American crops less competitive in global markets.

The most-traded wheat contract on the Chicago Board of Trade was down 2.2% at $6.91-3/4 a bushel, its weakest level in a month. Prices have shed 3.1% this week and have retreated from a three-and-a-half-year high of $7.95 touched earlier in September. The contract also slipped below its 50-day moving average for the first time since July, a bearish technical signal.

Traders were watching renewed diplomatic efforts to end the war in Ukraine and restore the Black Sea export corridor, with Turkey saying it was intensifying efforts to that end. Attacks by Russia and Ukraine on each other's grain shipments have disrupted exports and pushed up global prices. Yelena Tyurina, chief analyst at the Russian Grain Union, estimated Russia would export 1 million metric tons of wheat in September, compared with 5.7 million tons a year earlier.

Corn and soybean futures also moved lower. CBOT soybeans lost 0.7% to $13.08-1/4 a bushel but remained 0.3% above last week's close. Corn slipped 1.2% to $5.21 a bushel, its lowest in a month, and was down 1.3% for the week. Market participants were waiting to see whether a US-China summit would yield Chinese commitments to purchase US agricultural goods.

The dollar edged up after sharp gains against a basket of major peers in recent weeks. In other crop news, soybean processors in the western US Midwest are offering large premiums for immediate deliveries as persistent rains delay the early harvest. Brazil's 2026/27 soybean crop is projected at 173.75 million metric tons, 3.3% below the previous season, according to agribusiness consultancy Patria AgroNegocios.

Separately, bond markets came under renewed pressure, with US 30-year Treasury yields hitting a more than 20-year high as rising oil prices revived concerns about inflation and further Federal Reserve interest rate increases.