WTO barometer shows goods trade firming despite tariff, geopolitical strains

Global merchandise trade has shown renewed strength since June, even as tariff disputes and geopolitical frictions continue to weigh on the outlook, according to the World Trade Organization's latest barometer reading.

The September edition of the WTO's Goods Trade Barometer came in at 102, up from 101.7 in June. Any reading above 100 signals that trade is expanding at a pace faster than the baseline trend, while a figure below that mark would point to below-trend growth.

The barometer, published four times a year, tracks a mix of indicators including export orders, air freight, container shipping, automotive products, raw materials and electronic components.

The Geneva-based trade body attributed the improvement to resilient demand for electronic components, driven largely by investment in artificial intelligence and digital infrastructure. That demand, it said, is helping offset disruptions stemming from Middle East conflict and shifting trade-policy measures.

Those disruptions have included severe constraints on shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, a vital artery for global oil supplies, as well as sweeping tariffs imposed by the United States on trading partners.

Despite the firmer near-term momentum, the WTO cautioned that growth remains uneven across sectors and regions. It also flagged persistent risks from supply-chain disruptions, elevated transport costs and policy-related uncertainty that could cloud the trade outlook in the months ahead.

Earlier this year, the WTO had projected a marked slowdown in goods trade growth to 1.9 percent for the current year, down from 4.6 percent in 2025, with the possibility of a sharper deceleration if energy prices spike further and transport networks remain disrupted.