Xi Jinping Returns to Washington as a Transformed China Seeks Stability

When Xi Jinping first came to Washington on a state visit in 2015, he arrived as the leader of a country still widely seen as a rising power. He shook hands with then-president Barack Obama, and the two agreed to deepen economic ties and expand cooperation. In the Rose Garden, Obama said the United States welcomed the rise of a China that was peaceful, stable, prosperous and responsible.

That era is over.

Xi returns to the U.S. capital on Wednesday for the first state visit in more than a decade, now leading a country that analysts describe as having arrived on the global stage. According to Mira Rapp-Hooper of the Brookings Institution, China in 2015 was still profoundly and quickly rising, but rising undeniably. Now, she says, it has risen.

Both economies have expanded sharply over the past ten years. While the U.S. retains a strong edge, Beijing has acquired the capabilities to check American power and, in the words of Sun Yun of the Stimson Center, the will to use them. That shift was visible last year, when China matched President Donald Trump's 125% tariffs, brought trade close to a standstill and used its near-monopoly in processing critical minerals to push Washington to back down. Sun says China is now regarded as a near-peer rather than a disadvantaged rival.

Many of the concerns Washington raised in 2015 remain unresolved or have worsened. American companies still seek a level playing field and market access in China. Cyberattacks have grown more aggressive, and tensions in the South China Sea have risen alongside a growing Chinese military presence. Xi, meanwhile, has consolidated power, purged political rivals and abolished presidential term limits, while U.S. voters returned Trump to the White House.

Taiwan is expected to feature prominently. Xi made no mention of the self-governed island in his 2015 remarks, but when he hosted Trump in Beijing in May he warned of clashes and even conflicts if the U.S. mishandled it. This week, he is expected to press Trump to further delay an arms sales package to Taipei.

Trade patterns have shifted too. The U.S. was China's largest export market in 2015, taking nearly a fifth of its $2.3 trillion in exports. It remains the top destination today, but its share has slipped to 11% of China's global exports, which rose above $3.7 trillion in 2025. Higher tariffs have reduced American purchases, while China has shipped more goods to other markets to cushion the impact of the trade war.

China has also moved up the global value chain. A national strategy launched in 2015 to pursue advanced manufacturing has reduced dependence on imports in areas such as memory chips and medical devices, and made Chinese firms competitive in drones, electric vehicles, clean technologies and shipbuilding, according to an analysis by Rhodium Group. Kurt Campbell, a former veteran U.S. diplomat now chair of The Asia Group, says there is an undeniable sense of China's progress and that the country is not arriving but has arrived.

That manufacturing strength has translated into military power. China's shipbuilding capacity has allowed it to assemble the world's largest fleet by number of vessels, including a sophisticated aircraft carrier and advanced amphibious assault ships, according to Matthew P. Funaiole of the Center for Strategic and International Studies. The U.S. Navy still holds an advantage in overall tonnage and weapons systems, he notes. China has also developed fifth-generation fighter jets and expanded its fleet to hundreds, up from none in 2015, per a RAND report.

In space, China became the first country to land a spacecraft on the far side of the moon in 2019 and operates one of the two space stations in orbit. It is the only country besides the U.S. to have a space force. The latest Pentagon report on China's military says Beijing's buildup has made the U.S. homeland increasingly vulnerable, a sharp change from 2015, when the Pentagon warned only that modernization could reduce core American technological advantages.

Secretary of State Marco Rubio told reporters hours before Xi's arrival that the two leaders must engage because the U.S. and China are the world's two largest economies and probably its two most powerful militaries. Trump, who has attacked Democrats as communists ahead of November's midterm elections, is now seeking to impress Xi. First lady Melania Trump told Fox News Channel that the president is greeting Xi planeside because of their great relationship, adding that he is coming on American soil and deserves to be welcomed with the most respect.