Xi and Trump Head to Washington Summit With Trade Truce in Focus

Chinese President Xi Jinping and US President Donald Trump are set to meet in Washington on September 24, with the future of their trade truce dominating an agenda that analysts expect to yield continuity rather than breakthroughs.

The two leaders last met four months ago. Since then, the balance of leverage has shifted. China's exports have continued to surge despite US tariffs, while Trump has seen his approval ratings slide amid a costly war with Iran that has weighed on both his popularity and American households.

White House officials have played down the prospect of major agreements. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng held preparatory talks in New York on Sunday, aiming to tee up possible understandings on AI guardrails and trade in non-sensitive goods.

That modest scope contrasts with Trump's 2025 pledge to use tariffs to correct a trade imbalance he said was "killing" the United States. Since agreeing the truce with Xi last October, his attention has been pulled toward conflicts in Iran and Ukraine and disputes with Europe.

China has its own difficulties, including weak domestic demand and a prolonged property crisis. Yet its export machine has kept roaring in what economists increasingly call China Shock 2.0. Beijing's global trade surplus is on track to exceed $1 trillion for a second consecutive year, and more than half of the roughly 6,500 product categories China sold to the US this year have grown compared with 2025, even as curbs on cheap parcels used by retailers such as Shein and Temu have bitten.

A delegation of Chinese business leaders, potentially including firms facing US regulatory scrutiny, is expected to accompany Xi.

Analysts say Xi appears in no hurry to make concessions. "Xi is not really looking for anything tangible. He wants to extend the gentleman's agreement with Trump so that China has time to fortify itself," said Jon Czin of the Brookings Institution, a former China director at the US National Security Council.

Scott Kennedy of CSIS argued that Washington's bet on unilateral pressure had not paid off. "Now this is Xi Jinping's world, and we're all living in it," he said.

Taiwan remains a sensitive undercurrent. Trump has said Xi repeatedly raised the island, including US arms sales and Washington's willingness to defend it, when they met in Beijing in May. Trump described a pending $14 billion arms package for Taiwan as a "negotiating chip." Officials in Taipei and Tokyo worry he could trade it away for political wins before November's midterms, which could include Chinese purchases of Boeing jets or farm goods, or commitments to curb fentanyl precursor chemicals.

"China-US ties have become more transactional," said Wu Xinbo of Shanghai's Fudan University, who advises China's foreign ministry. He suggested Beijing could accommodate US concerns on law enforcement or agricultural purchases if Washington addresses Chinese concerns on Taiwan.

Washington also hopes Xi can press Iran to end a war that has dragged Trump's approval to the lowest point of his career. Beijing has shown little appetite to do so. US threats of secondary sanctions on countries trading with Iran, which Bessent called an "Economic D-Day," have not yet been directed at Tehran's largest trading partner.

Analysts see a shared interest in stability. "Both Xi and Trump feel it's quite helpful to have stability in the relationship so that they can focus on more pressing things," said Ruby Osman of the Tony Blair Institute for Global Change. "For Trump, that is Iran. For Xi, that is building out China's domestic resilience for whatever comes after Trump."